《大行》海通國際:A股短期快速上攻近尾聲 HIBOR上行對港股形成壓制
海通國際近日發表報告表示,該行認為增量資金入場會提振A股,而JacksonHole會議召開前,全球風險偏好或階段性承壓。上週A股市場進入加速上漲階段,而美股在會議前表現謹慎,直到聯儲局主席鮑威爾「放鴿」才收回本週跌幅。近期A股多重利好落地:科技繼續突破預期,上證綜指連續突破3,700點和3,800點,加上美聯儲9月降息概率大增。
對於本週,A股面臨利好後的大幅高開,上證綜指開盤或將直接挑戰3,900點,距離該行年度展望提出的4,000點目標已非常接近,短期繼續上行的空間或趨於有限。值得強調的是,4,000點僅是該行對2025年全年的目標位置,而非本輪行情的終點。本輪牛市並不只是資金驅動的「水牛」,隨著經濟壓力逐步出清,該行判斷市場將進入「從流動性驅動向盈利驅動」的切換期,具備基本面反轉預期的行業有望在輪動中逐步成為主線。
從資金面看,市場熱度顯著升溫。A股日均成交額上週升至2.6萬億人民幣,較上週均值增加約5,000億元人民幣,若下週繼續放量,短期成交可能臨近階段高點。兩融餘額上週前四日淨流入高達842億元人民幣,環比增長58%,是6月底兩融擴大流入以來的周均流入的2.7倍。上證綜指RSI指標已升至92.8,亦處於歷史高位。
海通國際指,上周港股走勢仍受流動性與匯率因素牽制:流動性方面,1個月HIBOR大幅上行至2.77%,對港股形成明顯壓制,恆生指數上周五在A股帶動下全週小幅上漲。匯率方面,港股對美元指數高度敏感。自7月24日以來,美元指數進入震盪區間,本週在鮑威爾發表鴿派講話後雖短線下挫,但並未跌破7月24日位置,整體仍維持震盪格局。若美元繼續盤整,短期仍將對港股構成壓制。AH股溢價指數維持低位運行,上週收於125,限制了港股相對A股的表現空間。南向資金上週淨流入降至179億元。個股方面,大型科網股繼續獲得南向資金青睞,騰訊(00700.HK)淨流入大幅增至46億元。(wl/u) ~
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