反壟斷處罰落地，美團基本面展望穩健
來源：興業證券
事件： 10月8日，市場監管總局依法對美團在中國境內網絡餐飲外賣平臺服務市場實施“二選一”壟斷行爲作出行政處罰，責令美團停止違法行爲，全額退還獨家合作保證金12.89億元，並處以其2020年中國境內銷售額1147.48億元3%的罰款，計34.42億元。
反壟斷懲罰落地，力度略好於市場預期。此次市場監管總局對美團的罰款標準是其2020年營收1147.48億元的3%，低於普遍預期對於阿裏巴巴的4%罰款標準，總罰款金額爲34.42億元，是美團2020年外賣經營利潤1.2倍。我們認爲，監管反對的是擾亂市場的壟斷行爲，而非企業領先地位，美團將繼續保持其在餐飲外賣行業的龍頭地位，原因在於：1）較強的線上線下運營優勢和配送效率；2）長期積累的用戶依賴感和習慣使用感；3）抖音等本地生活還處於初期階段，線下能力積累還需要較長週期。
美團外賣優勢明顯，預計市佔率保持穩定。美團在外賣行業深耕多年，憑藉其豐富的線上運營經驗以及完善的線下配送體系，整體的優勢明顯。雖處罰剛落地，但監管早在2020年就開始介入，在此過程中，美團2020全年的外賣收入和單量市場份額仍保持增長。2021Q1和Q2，美團餐飲外賣收入分別爲205.8億元（QoQ-4.5%）和231.3億元（QoQ+12.4%），而阿裏巴巴本地生活收入（主要來自於餓了麼）分別爲72.5億元（QoQ-13.2%）和87.6億元（QoQ+20.8%），預計美團外賣市佔率保持穩定。
騎手社保政策財務影響較小，落地時間較長。2020全年美團平臺上獲得收入的騎手近500萬，分爲專送和衆包，前者約60萬人。在新的靈活就業保障政策下，按極限值去估算，專送這部分由於社保產生的單均成本在1元左右，我們認爲實際落地的成本應該不會超過5毛每單，且落地週期會比較長，未來這部分增加的成本可以通過配送效率優化和業務穩定後補貼減少加以抵銷。
投資建議：我們認爲，1）反壟斷罰款力度略好於預期，公司在外賣行業領先地位穩固；2）騎手社保落地對其財務影響或小於之前市場預期；3）公司基本面穩健：外賣行業穩健增長；收入端傭金率提升空間小，但是補貼率有下降空間，貨幣化率還有一定提升空間；社區團購，公司有望保持龍頭之一，短期爲公司引流效果顯著，長期看與外賣和到店業務存在交叉銷售空間。維持公司“買入”評級，目標價346.86港元，較2021年10月8日收盤價有35.35%漲幅。
風險提示：1）政策風險；2）市場競爭加劇；3）餐飲行業景氣度下行；4）新業務減虧不及預期
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