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華西策略:最新A股投資者結構全景圖
格隆匯 12-30 17:55

本文來自: 策略李立峯與行業配置筆記,作者:華西策略團隊

投資要點

一、公募基金三季度持有A股總市值5.76萬億,佔A股總市值比重為5.87%(前值為5.57萬億,5.95%)。截至2021年三季度,公募基金持有A股總市值5.76萬億,佔A股總市值比為5.87%(前值為5.57萬億,佔比5.95%),持有規模和比重均處於歷史高位。三季度公募基金持股市值保持較快增長,同比增速為46.87%。流通市值口徑下,公募基金仍是持股市值佔比最高的專業機構投資者,三季度佔比8.15%

二、外資三季度持有A股總市值3.56萬億,佔總市值比3.81%(上季度末為3.76萬億,佔比4.03%)。截至2021三季度末,境外機構和個人持股總市值為3.56萬億,佔總市值比3.81%,持股規模和佔比較Q2有所下滑。2021Q3外資持股規模同比增速為29.44%(前期53.19%)。流通市值口徑下,受益於我國資本市場不斷開放,外資持股市值佔比呈現上升趨勢,從2016年末的1.66%上升至2021Q15.04%。

三、流通股市值口徑下,測得三季度末保險資金(不含通過基金持股)、私募基金持股規模分別為1.69萬億(佔比2.39%)、2.01萬億(佔比2.85%)總市值口徑下,截2021三季,保險資票和證券投資基金總2.73億,佔A總市值的比2.92%相比前期(2.78萬億、佔比2.98%)下降流通市值口下,據我們的測算,2021年三季度保險機構保險資金(不含通過基金持股)、私募基金持股規模分別為1.69萬億(佔比2.39%)、2.01萬億(佔比2.85%)其中,私募基金持有流通股規模快速增長,在所有專構投資者位列第三,次於公募和外資。

四、其他專業機構(養老金、證券機構、信託機構、其他境內機構)三季度合計持有A股流通市值2.74萬億(前值2.81萬億),佔流通市值比為3.87%(前值4.02%);個人投資者流通股持股佔比依然較高(33.87%)。根據測算2021年三季度末般法流通持股佔比最高43.84%)個人投資者次之(33.87%);其他構投資者養老金流、證券機構、信託機構、他境內機構流股持市值依次為1.16億、0.41萬億、0.44萬億、0.74萬億,比分別為1.64%、0.57%、0.62%、1.04%

風險提示:流動性風險,企業盈利不及預期,海外黑天鵝事件(政治風險、主權評級下調等),政策監管(金融去槓桿等),測算誤差,歷史統計規律失效等。

正文

注:文中報吿節選自華西證券研究所已公開發布研究報吿,具體報吿內容及相關風險提示等詳見完整版報吿。

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