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《大行》中金升順豐同城(09699.HK)目標價至 18.7元 仍看好即配需求增長
中金研究報告指出,順豐同城(09699.HK)今年上半年收入按年增49%至102.36億元;毛利潤按年增44%至6.81億元,毛利率按年跌0.2個百分點至6.7%,業績超出該行預期,主因即時零售需求超預期增長。 中金認爲,在平臺補貼以及消費政策刺激影響下,外賣行業業務量增長強勁,其中KA餐飲商家或受益更多。疊加商超、醫藥等多元KA商流的即配需求或仍在增長期,認爲在行業高增的背景下,公司憑藉第三方的中立性、精細化的商圈網絡營運能力以及運力網絡的靈活性,有望持續獲取KA商家中的訂單增量;預計2025年公司面向商戶收入增速或超50%,其中KA業務按年增速或將更高。 中金認爲,受益於電商平臺退換貨需求上漲以及國補產品配送帶來的末端履約需求,公司最後一公里業務或增長強勁。此外,隨着公司運力網絡與母公司快遞網絡逐步融合,在順豐集團大網中滲透率的提升、協同效應進一步加強,預計最後一公里業務全年增速或超50%。 考慮到公司持續受益於即時配送需求增長,中金上調順豐同城今明兩年淨利潤18.5%、42.6%至2.96億元、5.79億元。考慮到公司已進入穩定盈利期,中金切換估值方式由市銷率至市盈率估值。現價對應今明兩年40.7倍、20.5倍市盈率,維持「跑贏行業」評級。同步上調目標價38%至18.7港元,分別對應今明兩年53倍、27倍市盈率。
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