《大行》華泰證券大幅上調五礦資源(01208.HK)目標價至5.9元 評級「買入」
華泰證券研究報告指出,五礦資源(01208.HK)上半年業績整體表現亮眼,主因貴金屬等副產品漲價下,成本低於該行先前的預期。考慮公司低成本原因或具備一定可持續性,同時下半年整體產銷量或按半年提升,認為公司下半年業績有望按季進一步增長,維持對該股「買入」評級。
華泰證券認為,集團旗下祕魯礦場Las Bambas單噸成本,在今年下半年有望延續較低水平;公司C1指引由每磅1.5至1.7美元,下調至每磅1.4至1.6美元,是考慮2025年下半年臨近秘魯大選或導致擾動風險上升。
該行表示,公司指引未大幅下調是考慮不確定事件發生風險。同時產量指引均未改變,推斷此三個礦下半年產量及銷量或高於上半年。Kinsevere銅礦今年上半年電力不穩定問題導致爬坡低於預期,公司更新產量/成本預期至原先指引下端/上端。該行又認為,若今年下半年公司延續順利經營,充裕的現金流或進一步降低公司負債及財務費用。
展望今年下半年,華泰證券指全球流動性寬鬆下,銅、貴金屬等商品價格或繼續走強;疊加部分礦山下半年產銷量可能高於上半年,認為公司業績有望進一步按半年增長。
華泰證券上調銅價假設,下調成本、財務費用等假設,最終測算公司2025至27年各年歸母淨利分別為7.5億、8.7億及8.7億美元(變動幅度分別增加51%、43%及36%)。可比公司市盈率估值為12.1倍(2025年預測),公司已完成大部分產量釋放,給予12.1倍市盈率,基於美元兌港元匯率7.8502,大幅上調目標價,由原先3.31港元升至5.9港元。
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