《大行》瑞銀引述康師傅(00322.HK)指收入增長面臨挑戰 但對利潤率擴張有信心
康師傅(00322.HK)今早(30日)低開近0.9%後跌幅擴大,盤中低見12.6元一度下挫近7.1%,成交額1.26億元。公司今年3月下旬公佈去年純利升近20%但收入僅按年升0.3%,其中方便麪業務收入284.14億人民幣按年跌1.3%,市場持續關注集團未來收入增長(特別是方便麪業)挑戰,而招商證券於3月下旬報告曾指與採取專注於銷量驅動策略的統一(00220.HK)相比,康師傅顯示出一個不同步的動態,該行難以看清在這場零和遊戲中誰將勝出,康師傅在極具競爭的營運環境中,面臨市場份額損失的擔憂。
瑞銀最新發表報告表示,康師傅(00322.HK)管理層參與了該行舉行的亞洲投資論壇,該行引述康師傅管理層指今年以來銷售弱於預期(對比今年目標爲低至中單位數字增長),指自3月以來方便麪和飲料銷售均表現疲軟,第二季度的挑戰持續存在,尤其是飲料業務。
儘管收入面臨挑戰,但康師傅管理層對利潤率擴張表示信心,這得益於有利的原材料趨勢(例如,糖和PET價格下降)以及價格上調,預計2025年的淨利潤增長將與目標一致(淨利潤按年增長超過雙位數)。
對於方便麪,公司指市場份額按月保持穩定,但按年仍下降。價格上調後的市場份額恢復速度慢於預期,而經典系列仍面臨壓力。對於飲料,由於競爭激烈且競爭對手未跟進價格調整,1L飲料價格上調後的市場份額恢復困難,但管理層表示碳酸飲料和咖啡產品今年迄今呈現正增長趨勢。
康師傅管理層重申其未來三至五年目標爲淨利潤較2023年翻倍。預計淨利潤率擴張主要由毛利率擴張貢獻。2025年,毛利率擴張主要由飲料的原材料價格有利和麪食的價格上調驅動;未來幾年,管理層預計毛利率將通過產品組合優化、主動定價策略和更好的原材料管理持續擴張。
瑞銀維持對康師傅「買入」評級,上調目標價由14.5元升至15.1元,此按現金流折現率作估值。
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