《大行報告》花旗料安踏(02020.HK)面臨同業競爭壓力加劇 今年EBIT利潤率承壓
安踏(02020.HK)今早股價受壓,盤中低見68元一度下挫5.8%,最新報68.75元跌4.8%,為跌幅最大藍籌股。花旗發表報告表示,安踏體育管理層參與了該行所舉行的2024年消費股研討日,公司管理階層表示其於2023年第四季的關鍵營運矩陣「達到了內部目標」,該行基於安踏管理層最新評論後認為在其他國內品牌(包括李寧(02331.HK)和特步(01368.HK))的管道正努力去庫存下,料安踏組合中的其他品牌面臨更大的競爭壓力。而該行維持安踏「買入」評級及目標價107.8元。
該行預計安踏於2024年的息稅前利潤率將因廣告及推廣開支(A&P)費用按年大幅上漲而承壓,因料大多數奧運相關費用將計入2024年(而不是該行此前預期的部分費用將在2023年下半年前端計入)。
安踏管理層表示,將在3月底公布2023財年業績後向市場提供2024財年的財務指引。花旗目前對安踏2023財年及2024財年純利預測比市場同業共識各低8%及12%,並指滔搏(06110.HK)仍是該行在中國運動服飾領域的首選股。
安踏體育管理層透露於2023年第四季的關鍵營運矩陣(包括零售額成長、零售折扣和通路庫存與銷售比率)達到了內部目標,並承認2023年第四季度不同品牌的零售表現與管理層的預期有差異。其中Descente & Kolon的銷售量提前完成年度目標,然而,安踏品牌的零售銷售還需要「下更大的功夫」。
花旗指出同業李寧和Adidas近期均表示將在2024年推出低價產品平均售價的SKU(Stock Keeping Unit,單品項管理),以加速滲透內地低線城市。該行指可以理解的是,安踏品牌在未來幾季需要更多的基礎工作,以實現2023年至2026年三年複合年增長率10至15%的成長目標。
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