香港流動性緊張?總結餘接近08年低位,貼現窗使用率上升,同業拆息高位震盪
美銀最新研報顯示,2022年4月中上旬以來,香港隔夜、1周和2周HIBOR分別從1.19%、2%和2.20%左右的位置攀升至目前的4.81%、4.55%和4.52%高位,一個月累計上行幅度達到360BP、255BP和230BP左右。
同時,在香港金管局維護聯繫匯率制度的條件下幹預港元,截至5月10日,香港同業市場的結餘已經降至450億港元以下,創下2008年以來新低,今年下降510億港元。香港總結餘水平代表的是流動性供給的冗餘。
另外,自4月以來香港金管局的貼現窗口使用率也不斷上升。使用貼現窗意味着香港銀行無法從市場交易中完成結算,需要依賴向金管局借錢支付。從超過1億港元注資的統計來看,貼現窗口使用流程接近2019年底的流動性偏緊水平。
偏緊的流動性水平主要受到海外加息資金流出影響。儘管總結餘水平偏低,但香港聯繫匯率制度仍受到多重保護。包括金管局的外匯基金票據及債券(1.2萬億港元)以及4274億美元的外匯儲備等。美銀表示,香港金管局或採取結構性方式緩解當前銀行間市場的緊張,但觸發外匯基金等增加總結餘與聯繫匯率制度相悖,觸發門檻較高,因此同業拆息或保持高波動。
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