中国财险(02328.HK):2020年第三季度承保恶化,给予“中性“评级,目标价5.80港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:中性
目标价:5.80港元
中国财险(02328 HK)的承保在 2020 年第三季度恶化,差于我们的预期。总保费在 2020年首 3 季度增长 3.6%,相当于 2020 年第三季度增长 1.8%。2020 年首三季度的净利润下 滑 21.1%,相当于 2020 年第三季度下滑 17.8%。车险保费增 10.5%,而非车险保费跌13.0%。2020 年第三季度的非车险保费的下降是由于信用保证险保费的减少。在 2020 年第三季度,赔付率降 4.4 个百分点至 65.0%,而费用率升 6.5 个百分点至 35.4%。 综合成本率升 2.0 个百分点至 100.5%。因此,2020 年首 3 季度的承保利润减少了 15.5%。2020年首 3 季度的车险/融资类信用保证险/政策保险/商业非车险的综合成本率分别为 96.4%/139.8%/ 99.7%/ 96.4%。
综改后车险正面临严峻的环境。管理层表示,车险综合改革后的车均保费较改革前下降了23%。由于中小型保险公司倾向于以较低的费率吸引客户,综改导致了车险市场的激烈竞争。因此,短期内车险保费的增长应该会面临一些压力。尽管公司表示改革后车险的综合成本率展望稳定,但我们认为由于费率降低,综合成本率最终将增加。
下调目标价至 5.80 港元并维持“中性”评级。我们下调目标价至 5.80 港元,相当于 0.61倍 2020 年市净率。车险综合改革将为车险带来不确定性。与融资类信用保证险相关的赔付将继续影响非车险综合成本率。此外,由 2020 年下半年自然灾害引发的赔付也是另一个令人担忧的问题。因此,我们的投资评级仍为“中性”。

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