爱帝宫 (00286.HK)： 疫情下保持稳健增长，彰显月子服务强大的抗风险能力，维持“买入”评级，目标价0.95 港元
机构：安捷证券
评级：买入
目标价：0.95 港元
疫情下逆势增长，彰显月子服务强大的抗风险能力。1H20A 公司实现总收入 3.2 亿港元，同比增长+40.5%，主要由于公司于 2H19A 收购深圳爱帝宫完成财务并表所致。深圳爱帝宫月子服务收入实现收入 3.1 亿港元，同比增长+12.3%；实现毛利 1.3 亿港元，同比增长+11.4%，毛利率为 41.4%，较去年同期略微下降-30 bps；销售费用录得 5,168 万港元，同比增长+5.7%，销售费用率为 16.5%，同比下降-100 bps；行政费用录得 1,295 万港元，同比下降-11.5%，行政费用率为 4.1%，同比下降-110 bps；受益于收入的强劲增长及费率优化，1H20A 深圳爱帝宫月子服务盈利表现优异，净利润 4,797 万港元，同比增长+13.1%，净利率为 15.3%。
每年新开 300 间月子房的指引不变。1H20A 收入稳健增长主要得益于：1) 月子房数量达435 间，同比增加 25 间房，其中深圳/北京/成都各有 309/54/72 间房；2) 成都店入住率提升。管理层表示，每年新开 300 间月子房的指引不变。受疫情冲击，物业空置率提升，物业价格下降，公司表示将把握机遇，逆势扩张，进一步提升行业集中度，抢占市场份额。
罗浮山养生住宅项目 2H20E 开盘，预计为公司聚焦月子服务提供可观的现金流支持。公司的罗浮山养生住宅项目(持有 51%股权)是位于中国 5A 级景区罗浮山山脚下的稀缺住宅项目，现已取得 70 年使用年限的住宅土地约 123 亩，主要是可出售的养生别墅及养生洋房，预计 2H20E 开始销售，预计整体销售额有望达 21 亿人民币。
估值。我们维持公司买入评级，上调目标价至 0.95 港元，潜在上升空间+39.7%。考虑公司于疫情背景下保持稳健增长，业务性质具有抗周期能力及抗风险能力，我们维持对深圳 爱 帝 宫 FY20E-FY22E 的 收 入 预 测 为 7.9/11.6/17.5 亿港元 ， 增 长 率 为+20.0%/+47.0%/+51.0%，月子服务业务将占公司整体收入约 68.2%/47.3%/73.7%。基于月子服务板块带来的利润贡献，预计 FY20E/21E/22E 公司每股盈利为 0.03/0.07/0.08 港元，预计增速为+814.7%%/+112.4%/18.0%。我们将参考估值滚动至 FY21E，新目标价对应FY21E/22E 市盈率水平为 14.0/11.8 倍。风险：1) 行业监管真空，政策未来存在不确定性；2) 经营成本的不确定性；及 3) 服务事故及纠纷。
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