福莱特玻璃（6865.HK）：2020H1 毛利率超预期，盈利能力有望维持高位，维持“买入”评级，目标价14.76港元
机构：兴业证券
目标价：14.76港元
评级：买入
投资要点
公司2020H1 业绩符合预期，毛利率超预期。公司 2020H1 收入 25.0 亿元，同比增加 22.7%，归母净利润 4.6 亿，同比增加 76.3%，符合之前业绩预告的预期和市场预期。公司 2020H1 光伏玻璃实现毛利率 40%，超过市场预期，也恢复到历史上较高水平，主要受益于薄玻璃的结构性高价和2020Q2 开始成本端纯碱、天然气的明显下降。展望到今年年底，不排除在四季度由于需求的强劲，玻璃价格继续出现上调的情况，但也会受到新投产和冷修复产产能释放的一定程度上的压制。成本端，短期也较难看到纯碱和天然气价格环比明显提升的趋势。
公司良好的融资为产能扩张奠定基础，稳定了行业地位。公司的越南 2条 1000 吨产线由于受疫情影响，预计推迟于 2020 年年底之后陆续点火。2020 年 5 月公司顺利完成了可转债发行工作，募资 14.5 亿元，将用在计划于 2021 年投产的两条 1200 吨/日的玻璃产线。6 月，公司又公告计划于年内定增预计募集资金 20 亿元，计划在凤阳再增加 2 条 1200 吨的光伏玻璃产线的建设，预计于 2021-2022 年陆续投产。另外，公司拟在浙江投资5.4 亿元建设六条年产 4200 万平方米的光伏背板玻璃产线，在背板玻璃上增加产能储备。
我们的观点：福莱特玻璃是稳居全球光伏玻璃市场份额第二的企业，随着产能扩张，预计未来继续实现市占率的提升。根据公司和行业的最新情况，我们将公司 2020 年的收入下调 4.3%，利润上调 15.7%，主要是考虑到光伏玻璃比预期更高的毛利率。我们也将公司 2021 年的收入和利润预测分别上调 4.9%和上调 12.2%，将 2022 年的收入和利润预测上调 13.3%和14.8%，主要是反映了公司新产能的投放。我们预计公司 2020-2022 年的收入分别为 5,480、7,751 和 11,150 百万元，归母净利润分别为 1,030、1,489和 2,087 百万元，维持“买入”评级，由于提升了盈利预测和估值切换，将目标价从 9.15 港元上调为 14.76 港元，对应 2021 年 18 倍 PE。
风险提示： 1、国内光伏需求不及预期；2、海外光伏需求大幅下滑；3、公司产能建设慢于预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
