宇华教育(06169.HK)2020中报点评：内生和投后管理超预期，龙头溢价初显，维持“买入”评级，目标价8.00—9.56港元
机构：国信证券
评级：买入
目标价：8.00—9.56港元
业绩靓丽，超出预期
宇华教育2020H1实现收入12.60亿元（+57.4%）；调整后毛利润7.63亿元（+58.9%）；调整后的归母净利润5.67亿元（+49.6%）。三项费用率共计17.8%（+1.4%）。截至2020年2月29日，公司在校生人数13.82万人，较2019年末增长39.9%。公司收入和调整后净利润均超出我们和市场此前预期，特别是K12部分内生增速表现优异。
高质量资产和出色投后整合优势显著
公司目前拥有29所学校，包括4所大学、5所高中和20所K9学校。学生人数看，非K9阶段人数占86%；从收入结构看，非K9阶段收入占84%。截至目前，公司三所国内大学均名列中国民办大学排行榜前十一位、各自所在省民办大学排行榜第一位。山东英才学院整合仅半年时间，贡献7500万元净利润；斯坦福国际学院扭亏为盈。
负债率大幅优化，在手现金充足
截至2020年2月29日，公司有息负债规模约3.02亿元（-40.8%），较2019FY减少12.70亿元，有息资产负债率3.3%（-3.6%）。公司现金及现金等价物15.78亿元（+37.2%），经营性现金流4.95亿元（+58.1%）。优化的负债率和充足的现金流将助力公司进一步扩张。
上调盈利预测和合理估值区间，维持“买入”评级
考虑到山东英才和斯坦福国际学校整合效果良好，且内生增长超预期，小幅上调对公司的盈利预测。我们预测公司2020-2022年的收入为24.00、25.92、27.48亿元；净利润上调至9.57、10.53、10.78亿元。
公司5月5日的收盘价7.71港元对应的2020-2022年预测PE分别为24.53、22.29、21.79倍。我们认为公司的管理层能力进一步得到市场认可，开始出现较可比公司的溢价。维持对公司的“买入”评级，将合理估值区间由6.25~6.41港元上调至8.00~9.56港元。
风险提示
并购进度不及预期；公司运营出现较严重的负面事件；政策不及预期。
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