周大福(01929.HK):2020年1-2月同店销售增长受新冠病毒影响,维持“收集”评级,目标价7.65港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:收集
目标价:7.65港元
受新冠病毒爆发影响,同店销售增长在2020年1-2月大幅下滑。中国内地收入同比下降42%,同店销售下降49%。香港、澳门和其它地区的零售额和同店销售分别同比下滑60%和59%。产品结构方面,镶嵌珠宝和黄金产品表现接近。
预计销售会在2020年第2季度逐渐恢复。从2020年2月底开始在中国内地和香港暂时关闭的门店逐渐开始恢复营业。我们预期当疫情得到抑制、经营环境恢复正常之后,中国内地的需求将会得到较快恢复。然而,香港市场更加依赖游客因而面临更严峻的挑战。
重申投资评级为“收集”,但下调目标价至7.65港元。估值分别相当于22.0倍2020财年市盈率以及14.9倍2021财年市盈率。考虑到公司在中国内地稳定的增长趋势,我们认为该估值合理。下行风险包括1)较预期疲弱的消费情绪恢复;2)金价波动;以及3)派息率降低。

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