蒙牛乳业(2319.HK)：加强高端化布局，业务触角伸向海外；首次覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价 37.0港元
机构：国元证券
评级：买入
目标价：37.0港元
投资要点
行业仍有增长空间，竞争态势有望维持，集中度缓慢提升： 我国乳制品的人均消费量仅为日韩的 1/3 至1/2，估算未来 5 年我国乳制 品市场规模将维持5%左右的复合增速。产品方面，高端化趋势将进一步 驱动行业增长，产品升级仍是主基调。成本方面，预计未来两年原奶价 格温和上涨，乳企龙头竞争态势保持稳定，行业集中度持续、缓慢提升。
高端奶源保障产品结构升级，渠道下沉助力基础白奶增长：
原奶方面，蒙牛对高端原奶资源的掌控力在业内领先，高质量原奶资源可覆 盖超过 20%的产能。产品方面，受益于高端奶源的布局，公司高端产品特仑 苏和纯甄的收入增速达 20%以上，大幅高于行业平均。产品结构的高端化有 助于提升企业的盈利能力，2016 年以来公司毛利率持续提升。渠道方面， 经过改革后，管理红利逐步释放，渠道下沉战略也取得一定成效，对渠道依 赖性较强的蒙牛基础白奶收入在 2019H1 同比增长 19%。
国际化收购步伐加快，加强高端化布局，完善供应链体系：
2019 年中，公司宣布收购澳大利亚奶粉品牌贝拉米（收入规模约 16 亿人民 币）进一步布局高端奶粉;11 月,公司宣布收购澳大利亚著名乳企 Lion Dairy &Drinks（税后利润超 2 亿人民币）。如上述收购顺利完成，公司有 望在澳洲建立起一个具备优质奶源、乳品加工、冷链物流、多元化品牌的完 整产业链，有助于公司继续发展高端产品、降低高端奶源成本和供给压力、 为公司提供国内、澳洲以及东南亚地区市场的拓展机遇，完善供应链体系。 首次覆盖给予买入评级，目标价 37.0 港元： 我们预计公司2019-2021 年 EPS 将分别为1.75/1.18/1.40 元人民币，给予 目标价 37.0港元，对应 2020年28 倍 PE，较现价有23.5%的涨幅空间， 首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
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