中教控股(0839.HK)拥抱优质资产收购再下一城维持“增持”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：增持
收购重庆南方翻译学院100%，估值低于行业平均。2019年公司继收购泉城大学后，新增收购四川外国语大学重庆南方翻译学院，交易对价10.1亿，标的学校负债5.1亿，整体收购估值15.1亿，对应2019年EV/EBITDA为12.2倍，低于行业平均估值。第一期对价在10个工作日内支付7.93亿，第二期在完成举办人权益变更批准等手续后支付2.17亿元。标的学校是由教育部于2003年批准的独立学院，目前拥有33个本科学科、1.3万名在校生，本科生占比100%，拥有渝北区及綦江区两大校区，渝北校区靠近市中区，区位资源丰富，校园面积1,572亩。
新增学校卡位区位优势，增长释放空间大。1）内生质地优异，报道率及就业率良好，2018年报道率94.1%且逐年提升，初次就业率93.3%。2）量价释放空间大：目前已建成校舍可以支持后续增长，2019年新增学额140个左右，若后续转设为独立本科大学可进一步提高学额，同时可新增开设大专专业。学费方面，标的学校文理科均低于同类学校中位数，2019/20学年学费计划从1.4万元提高到文科1.5万元、理科1.6万元。3）学校资产质量优异，已具备转设独立本科学校的条件，无需新增资本开支。4）区域优势：学校所在的重庆市高教资源稀缺，是高考大省：2019年重庆市高考人数26.4万，高等教育毛入学率仅为43%。
标的学校经营表现稳健，并表后财务费用有望降低。截至2018年标的学校实现营收2.21亿元，同增11%；EBITDA1.08亿元，同增19%；标准化净利1273万元。未经审计资产总值/资产净值分别为15.95/5.43亿元。净利润和EBITDA主要差异在于1）：财务费用6557万元，中教并购后预计偿还部分负债同时降低借款利率，财务费用有望改善；2）折旧摊销费用3000万左右。此外，学校已具备转设条件，未来转设后将不再收取8%管理费，伴随并表后管理、财务等方面协同效应，学校盈利能力有望提升。若交易完成顺利，预计于20个工作日实现控制转移及并表，于2020财年实现全年并表。
投资建议。公司作为规模最大的民办高教上市公司，旗下拥有8所学校，截至FY19H1在校学生数15.6万名，上市以来已成功收购5所学校，收购标的质地优异，收购进度符合预期。公司有望利用规模优势、融资优势及管理优势持续扩张高教版图，享受行业整合红利。暂不考虑泉城学院和南方翻译学院并表，我们维持2019/2020/2021年净利分别为7.42/8.91/10.17亿元，同增26%/20%/14%，对应EPS0.37/0.44/0.50元/股，现价对应2019年PE29倍，维持“增持”评级。
风险提示：《民促法实施条例》终稿政策不确定性风险；扩张速度不达预期；公司经营及盈利能力不达预期。
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