《大行》花旗:內地8月網上零售符預期 料阿里本財季CMR收入可升10%
花旗發表報告表示,中國國家統計局公布8月中國零售數據。8月社會消費品零售總額達3.97萬億元人民幣,按年增3.4%(對比7月按年增3.7%)。今年1至8月累計網上零售額達9.98萬億人民幣,按年增9.6%(對比7月按年增9.2%,較2024年1至8月按年增2.9%)。內地今年8月網上零售滲透率達33%(對比7月32%,及2024年8月的30%)。2025年1至8月,網上實物商品零售額達8.1萬億人民幣,按年增6.4%(對比7月按年增6.3%,及2024年1至8月按年增8.1%)。
8月零售銷售分類方面,扣除汽車(按年增0.8%)的總零售銷售按年增長應為3.7%。按類目,家具、體育及娛樂用品、珠寶、家用電器及辦公用品分別按年增長18.6%、16.9%、16.8%、14.3%及14.2%,石油及製品、煙酒則分別按年下降8%及2.3%。其他類目,化妝品按年增5.1%,服裝按年增3.1%,餐飲按年增2.1%。
花旗指認為,內地8月網上零售(按年增12.4%)及網上實物商品零售(按年增7.1%)增長雖較7月(13.5%/8.3%)放緩,但仍符合預期。對比整體社會零售總額從7月的3.7%降至8月的3.4%,網上零售及網上實物商品銷售增長韌性仍勝預期,相信主要因電商平台「即時零售」(quick commerce)競爭,加碼補貼促銷。家電整體銷售增長維持14.3%(對比7月28.7%),網上家電增長5.7%(對比7月5.8%)。通訊器材按年增7.3%(對比7月14.9%);服裝整體增長3.1%(對比7月1.8%);網上服裝銷售增長略提速至按年增2.4%(對比1至8月1.7%)。
該行認為8月官方數據顯示:1)家電及數碼類目增長放緩,與部分城市補貼用盡有關;2)網上及整體服裝、化妝品類增長略加快,反映可選消費復甦。結合京東(09618.HK)今年第二季業績及管理層指引,預計京東今年第三季收入按年增11%至2,882億元人民幣;阿里巴巴(09988.HK)2026財年第二財季(截至今年9月底止財季)客戶管理收入(CMR)預計893億元人民幣,按年增10%。進入9月,預計家電類目或因高基數出現負增長,服裝於國慶黃金周旺季前或有較強表現。進入10月,預料「雙十一」預售將啟動,平台競爭重心將逐步從外賣速遞轉向即時零售。
該行維持阿里巴巴「買入」評級及目標價183港元。
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