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中信里昂料外賣戰難以持續 AI和雲服務收入將支持中資科技股估值
對於近期中國電商市場外賣大戰,中信里昂證券亞洲電訊及互聯網研究董事總經理梁向奕在媒體簡報會上表示,這場外賣競爭最初由京東-SW(09618.HK)發起,目前京東和阿里-W(09988.HK)已分別投入100億和200億人民幣,目前阿里在市場份額上保持領先,但相信激進的外賣補貼模式難以持續。 她指,市場預計今次外賣補貼戰可能延續至「雙11」購物節,但隨著補貼成本上升,阿里和京東可能需要重新評估用戶價值,減少補貼,專注忠實客戶以提升營運效率。短期內,阿里股價可能因高額補貼而受壓,但一旦補貼規模縮減,預計利潤將會回升,並相信是一個短期影響,主要是因為中國的零售和電子商務市場已經相對成熟。 相反,她提到,作為新興產業的雲服務市場競爭壓力就較細,未來人工智能相關業務有望成為中資科技股的關鍵動力。在美國,AI已連續多年推動市場增長,中國市場也將迎來類似趨勢。短期內AI相關業務和雲服務收入有望超預期為估值帶來支持,加上全球基金近來重新審視中國市場,若全球資金持續流入,將進一步提振市場表現。 另外,中信里昂中國消費品行業研究主管高馨兒表示,投資者對中國IP商業表現出積極的看法。當中,泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)作為IP擁有者和直接面向消費者(DTC)的渠道營運商,認為公司有潛力成長為一家規模化的IP管理公司。
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