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惠譽降美團(03690.HK)評級展望至「穩定」外賣大戰不可持續
評級機構惠譽將美團-W(03690.HK)長期發行人違約評級(IDR)展望從「正面」下調為「穩定」,並維持IDR評級為「BBB+」。惠譽同時確認了美團的高級無擔保債務評級及其未償美元高級票據評級為「BBB+」。 展望調整反映了惠譽對美團短期內收入增長放緩、盈利能力及自由現金流生成能力減弱的預期,這主要由於食品配送和即時購物領域的激烈市場競爭。然而,惠譽預計當前價格戰的激烈程度將在未來6至12個月內緩解,並預計美團將於2026年恢復正向自由現金流。 惠譽預計美團將在中國食品配送行業保持主導地位。美團的市場份額在7-8月較2025年上半年有所下降,但其在主餐食品配送的領導地位基本未受影響。惠譽預計當前價格競爭將在2025年第三季見頂,並於2026年逐步緩解。 來自阿里巴巴(09988.HK)和京東(09618.HK)的激進補貼策略下,惠譽認為,當前的價格戰不可持續,因為行業補貼支出每季超過400億元人民幣,且可能面臨監管干預,但競爭的強度和持續時間仍存在不確定性。
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