《大行》花旗微升長江基建(01038.HK)目標價至62.5元 併購機遇下維持「買入」評級
花旗發表研究報告指,長江基建(01038.HK)2025年上半年淨利潤按年增長1%至43.48億港元,較該行預期低3%,主因匯兌收益少於預期、融資成本增加及澳洲業務利潤低於預期。然而,其每股股息按年增長1.4%至0.73港元,符合該行預期。該行將2025年淨利潤預測上調14%,假設下半年出售未上市的英國鐵路資產(持股65%)可帶來13億港元處置收益。基於現金流折現法,目標價由62元微升0.8%至62.5港元。
該行維持長江基建「買入」評級,仍是香港公用股首選,原因包括:(1)併購交易可望推動2026年淨利潤增至9.36億港元,增長11%;(2)美國降息將重估長建估值-若美國國債收益率下降50基點,根據歷史相關性,長建股息收益率或收窄37.5基點,股價可能上漲8%;(3)當前2025年預測市盈率14.0倍、市賬率1.1倍及股息率4.7%具吸引力。
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