You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行》國泰海通料今年南向資金流入有望超1萬億 不同機構港股偏好板塊存明顯差異
阿思達克 07-07 12:51
國泰海通證券發表報告表示,從各類投資主體出發拆解南下結構,歷史上散戶等資金是南下主力,但今年首季險資、公募等機構資金推動港股通淨流入創新高。不同類型投資者對港股偏好板塊存在明顯差異,內地公募基金偏好科技醫藥,險資偏好紅利。而全年來看在資產荒背景下機構資金對稀缺性港股資產仍有增配空間,定量估算今年南下資金淨流入望超1萬億元。 不同機構的港股偏好板塊存在明顯差異。今年南向資金主要流入互聯網科技和銀行,如零售、軟件服務、銀行等,背後的推動力量或存在差異。由於私募資金的港股持倉較不透明,該行主要研究主動公募、ETF、險資的對各行業的增量規模。主動公募主要流入港股互聯網、半導體等板塊,基於重倉股的行業佔比測算主動偏股公募的持股市值規模變化情況,今年首季主動偏股公募流入軟件服務、零售、半導體等較多。被動資金主要流入港股互聯網、創新藥等板塊,該行對各港股通ETF的淨申購額按照跟蹤指數的行業權重進行分配,被動資金流入軟件服務、生物製藥、零售等互聯網、創新藥板塊較多。險資主要流入港股銀行、保險等板塊,採用剔除集團持股的前十大股東口徑來測算險資港股內部的行業分佈情況,今年首季險資流入銀行、保險、多元金融等較多。 國泰海通證券料全年南向資金淨流入額有望超1萬億元。近期AH溢價率在港股持續佔優的背景下快速收窄,南向資金流入速率明顯放緩,成交佔比也有所回落。往後看,港股部分稀缺性資產在宏觀偏弱環境下仍具備較強吸引力,在公募、險資等力量推動下,後續南向資金仍有一定增量空間。從定量測算來看,主動公募方面,該行採用港股基金中合同規定的港股投資比例上限來推算,主動公募仍有大約3,000億元的理論增配港股空間,考慮到目前沒有港股通投資資格的公募也可以通過修改基金合同來投資港股,該行預計2025年全年公募實際增量有望達2,000億至3,000億元左右。 險資方面,按照險企資金運用餘額全年15%的按年增速假設,對險資權益倉位、險資權益倉位中港股佔比情況進行不同情景假設,預計2025年全年險資實際增量有望達2,500億至4,000億元左右。綜上,加上其他增量資金,全年南向資金淨流入規模有望超10,000億元。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account