郭思治:大市在動力不繼下略見反覆
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(12日)略見反覆,恆指昨早市先低開143點至24,223點,其後曾略為後抽至24,288點,但由於買盤不繼,加上回吐沽壓亦漸增,故大市卒再進一步回落至24,002點方漸見喘定,單從走勢上看,大市暫該屬大幅急升後之技術性回吐而已,畢竟,恆指自2日之低位22,668點開始之上升,至11日高位24,439點止計,在短短八個交易日內,恆指累積之升幅已達1,771點,論步伐確有點稍偏促,故一旦買盤不繼,定必招來技術性之回吐沽壓,惟大市雖略見反覆,但只要恆指能持續穩守於10天線(約在23,806點左近)之上,小許反覆所帶出之問題該不大,恆指最後報收24,035點,較上日跌331點,全日總成交金額為2,444億元。
直到目前一刻止計,年內之低位暫仍為1月13日之18,671點,而年內之高位則暫為3月19日之24,874點,即年內之波幅暫為6,203點,形態屬先低後高,惟相對年度計,6,203點之波幅確實偏細,即是說,只要先低後高之形態不變,大市該會候機突破24,874點,然後再進一步往上尋年內之新高,再從年圖上看,1月13日之低位18,671點與4月9日之低位19,260點該屬一個高低腳式之小雙底,單從技術上看,此區間之支持該相當強,即是說,今年大市之低位該已現,但高位則仍未現身,故在本年餘下之交易日,大市該會進一步上尋年內之新高,以低位為18,671點計,假如今年大市之波幅有約8,000點至8,500點,年內高位已可上望26,671點至27,171點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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