瑞銀:中國貿易未來或進一步走弱 今年底人幣兌美元或見7.4
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,中美貿易局勢緩和,但5月一籃子消費品出口跌幅擴大,汽車出口按年增速升至歷史高位,進口按年跌幅超預期,預計經季節性調整後,銅礦石及鐵礦石的進口量趨勢均有所改善,表明在外部關稅風險,國內需求總體上保持穩定。
汪濤稱,5月整體出口走弱,若關稅保持在目前水平,中國對美國出現「搶出口」的情況可能在6月更爲明顯,但隨着未來數個月其他出口經濟體對美國「搶出口」的節奏可能會逐漸正常化,對貿易增長前景較爲謹慎,預計未來數個月貿易將大幅走弱。
瑞銀投資銀行高級亞洲及中國經濟學家鄧維慎預計,今年底人民幣對美元匯率爲7.4左右,全年或在7至7.4區間波動,而近期可能處於更爲趨近偏強的區間,相信在近期人民幣兌美元走強下,資本外流壓力可能略有緩解。
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