郭思治:本月大市之形態暫屬先低而後高
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已身處6月份之上旬,而直到目前一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先低而後高,恆指暫是由2日之低位22,668點升至6日之高位23,951點,即月內之波幅暫為1,283點,由於一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於5個交易日之內,加上1,283點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,理論上該有更大之波幅點出現,從而擴闊月內之波幅以滿足所需,另外,亦能拉闊月內高低位之距離以符合慣性之要求,而從目前大市之情況看,只要先低後高之形態不變,大市該仍會候機再進一步往上尋月內之新高,以本月低位暫為2日之22,668點計,假如本月有約1,500點至1,800點之上升波幅,恆指已可憧憬上試24,168點至24,468點,當然,大市之成交金額能否配合至為關鍵,因動力如不相配,大市之升勢會漸受規限。
再看移動線方面之表現,由於大市週來曾略見反覆,故導致10天線之升勢亦稍見放緩,而直到執筆一刻止計,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下為20天線(約在23,495點左近),10天線(約在23,481點左近),50天線(約在22,686點左近),100天線(約在22,308點左近)及250天線(約在20,245點左近),單從排列上看,已表示大市週來確曾出現明顯反覆,但這只屬技術性表現,只要恆指能續上尋月內之高位,相信10天線可再度重越20天線。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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