郭思治:大市仍持續整固在20,000點附近
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,今天(31日)是2024年最後一個交易日,同時亦是12月場外衍生工具結算日,當然亦是年結日。由於是除夕,故只得半日市。在交投持續偏疏及動力不足下,估計大市會持續整固在20,000點左近。先看昨天(30日)大市之表現,恆指昨早市先輕微高開34點至20,124點,其後曾再稍升至20,193點。但在動力不足下,市勢卒漸趨反覆,而零碎沽壓亦再次滲著湧現,故整個大市卒在反覆中回落至19,968點方漸見喘定。其後市勢亦一直在上述波幅內反覆徘徊,恆指最後報收20,041點,較上日跌49點,大市全日總成交金額僅為1,285億元。
不妨作個回顧,今天大市之表現並不算差,直到撰文一刻止計,今年大市之形態屬先低而後高,恆指是由1月22日之低位14,794點升至10月7日之高位23,241點,即年內之波幅共上升8,447點。其後大市由10月7日之高位23,241點回調至11月26日之低位19,054點,即恆指共回調4,187點,相對升幅為8,447點計,即恆指共回調升幅之49.5%。單從技術上看,大市回調之幅度屬正常現象,同時亦是可接受之幅度,只是其後大市之交投持續偏疏,故在動力不足之下,未能再重展新升浪。但有一點可見到,即使大市仍續見反覆,惟恆指一直拉鋸於年內波幅之上半段,即走勢已不算太差。至於明年1月上旬大市能否有較明顯之升勢,當需視乎資金之入市態度而定,故大市之動力如持續不配,升勢定必受規限。
(筆者為證監會持牌人士)~
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