郭思治:大市持續反覆穿梭於50天線 等待變化
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市仍在整固待變之中,恆指昨(8日)早市先低開102點至22,589點,其後在維穩買盤支持下曾一度上升288點至22,979點,即此刻恆指又再稍輕越50天線,但由於買盤態度漸趨保守,加上零碎沽壓又再略見湧現,故大市漸呈反覆,而恆指亦再度稍跌穿50天線,從走勢上看,在氣氛保守下,大市暫處整固待變之中,期間恆指會持續反覆穿梭於50天線,直至有較明確之方向為止,惟需留意,大市自4月9日低位19,260點開始之反彈,至5月7日高位23,197點止計,恆指之升幅已達3,937點,以一個反彈市計,升幅該已不算小,恆指最後報收22,775點,較上日升84點,全日總成交金額為1,858億元。
踏進5月份後,大市在維穩之買盤支持下,恆指已進一步輕越50天線(約在22,802點左近),雖暫仍未出現升離之勢,但只要恆指能持續穩守於50天線之上,即其時大市已穩企於各組平均移動線之上,單從技術上看,形勢該有利於短期後市之發展,只是大市之交投似未見暢旺,故在動力不配之下,大市暫時確難有太多上望憧憬,而從目前之市勢看,恆指如能成功升越7日之高位23,197點,其時不但代表大市會進一步上尋月內之新高,且目標該直指4月1日之高位23,456點。
需指出,近期概念股在資金大手追捧之下,升勢相當明顯,但由於累積之升幅已不算小,故任何再冒高追入均需承擔一定回吐風險,故參與者最好是做好一切風險管理。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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