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郭思治:大市再度重現反覆不明之趨勢
阿思達克 03-24 08:40
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已身處3月份之下旬,故即月期指轉倉及結算等相關活動將漸主導大局,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先低而後高,恆指暫是由4日之低位22,547點升至19日之高位24,874點,即月內之波幅暫爲2,327點,由於波幅該已可滿足月內之所需,加上本月高低位之距離亦已符合慣性之要求,故在本月底之前,大市可能會持續反覆上落於上述波幅之內,惟有一點需留意,大市經過一輪急步上升後,由於累積升幅已不少,故一旦買盤態度略見保守,而伺高回吐之沽盤又稍作主動,大市可能會稍作較明顯之反覆,畢竟,恆指自今年1月13日低位18,671點開始之中期升浪,至3月19日高位24,874點止計,在短短9周內,累積之升幅已達6,203點,確實不算小,故高臺略見回吐及消化乃正常現象。 再看移動線方面之表現,直到執筆一刻止計,各組平均移動線之排列暫仍屬標準之上升模式,目前由上而下爲10天線(約在24,016點左近),20天線(約在23,756點左近),50天線(約在21,931點左近),100天線(約在20,941點左近)及250天線(約在19,223點左近),單從技術上看,只要恆指能穩守在10天線之上,即表示大市仍處續尋頂之趨勢中,只是經過一輪急升後,需作適量消化而已,但需留意,恆指一旦正式跌穿10天線,雖並不代表大市會出現明顯逆轉,惟該表示大市技術上已漸擺脫續尋頂之趨勢,其時大市亦可能會漸陷反覆不明之中。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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