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郭思治:大市仍持續處整固待變之中
阿思達克 05-26 08:55
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已接近5月份之尾聲,而剩下之交易日亦不多,週三(28日)是即月期指轉倉高峯日,週四(29日)是即月期指結算日,至週五(30日)是5月最後一個交易日,亦是即月場外衍生工具結算日,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先低而後高,恆指暫是由2日之低位22,058點升至21日之高位23,917點,即月內之波幅暫爲1,859點,首先,本月恆指高低位相距之交易日爲十三日,該已可符合慣性之要求,至於1,859點之波幅則稍偏細,但在交投持續偏疏之下,由於動力不配,故即使恆指於21日已升至23,917點,惟無法乘勢上破24,000點,而在升勢漸受阻之下,伺高回吐之獲利沽盤亦漸增,故整個大市之走勢已開始漸呈反覆。 此潮反彈市是始自4月9日之低位19,260點,到5月21日高位23,917點止計,大市在短短6周內,累積之升幅已有達4,657點,相對前跌浪爲5,614點計(3月19日之高位24,874點跌至4月9日之低位19,260點),即大市已反彈跌幅之82.9%,單論反彈之幅度計確已不算小,值得留意的是,大市暫只屬報復式反彈而已,因在交投持續偏疏之下,由於動力不配,技術上暫難發展成一箇中期新升浪,而經過4,657點之快速反彈後,大市可能需稍作消化及整固,期間10天線(約在23,508點左近)之支持便頗爲關鍵。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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