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郭思治:大市在先低後高下稍見突破
阿思達克 12-09 09:01
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市已身處12月份之上旬,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市已初呈先低後高之形態,恆指暫是由3之低位19,386點升至6日之高位19,934點,即月內之波幅暫爲548點,由於一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於4個交易日之內,加上548點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,定必有更大之波幅點出現,從而擴闊月內之波幅以滿足所需,同時亦能拉闊月內高低位之距離以符合慣性之要求,從技術上看,只要恆指能持續穩守在10天線(約在19,517點左近)及20天線(約在19,595點左近)之上,論形勢該有利於短期後市再進一步上尋月內之新高。 再看移動線方面之表現,目前各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲50天線(約在20,370點左近),20天線(約在19,595點左近),10天線(約在19,517點左近),100天線(約在18,926點左近)及250天線(約在17,811點左近),而從目前大市之走勢看,由於恆指已稍重越10天線及20天線,即表示大市自11月8日高位21355點開始之回落,技術上暫該已回穩於11月26日之低位19,054點,只是由於大市之交投持續偏疏,故在動力不足之下,大市未能伺機進一步上試20,000點及50天線(約在20,370點左近),但需留意,只要本月大市先低後高之形態不變,以低位爲3日之19,386點計,只要月內有約1,000點之上升波幅,恆指已可高見20,386點。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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