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郭思治:大市在整固中似欲再推升
阿思達克 01-20 09:19
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市即將步入1月份之下旬,由於農曆新年在即,故由本週開始,1月份剩下之交易日只得七天,即是說,本週五(24日)已爲1月期指轉倉高峯日,而下週一(27日)則爲1月期指結算日,到下週二(28日)爲1月場外衍生工具結算日,由於今年無年三十,故當日只得半日市,從上述資料可見到,1月份剩下之交易日確實不多,而整個大市亦將漸受即月期指轉倉及結算等相關活動所主導,而直到執筆一刻止計,本月大市之形態仍暫屬先高而後低,恆指暫仍是由2日之高位19,932點跌至13日之低位18,671點,即月內之波幅暫爲1,261點,從走勢上看,大市經過周來之一輪反彈後,由於恆指現已成功重越19,000點及10天線(約在19,320點左近),故大市暫已擺脫進一步尋底之弱態,惟市勢能否再進一步反彈,則需視乎資金之入市態度而定,因大市之動力如不相配,升勢定必漸受規限。 周來大市之反彈,走勢上該只屬大幅急跌後之技術性回升而已,因直到目前一刻止計,大市自去年10月7日高位23,241點開始之回落,其後喘定於11月26日之低位19,054點,即恆指共回調4,187點,大市在急跌後稍作反彈,而恆指亦伺機回升至12月10日之高位21,070點,即恆指共回升2,016點,但由於買盤不繼,加上沽壓又再滲着涌現,故大市卒在反覆中回落至今年1月13日之低位18,671點,即恆指共回調2,399點,而目前正處技術性之反彈中,單從上述資料看,大市技術上確已初呈浪低於浪之弱態。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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