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郭思治:大市明顯急升惟動力頗不相配
阿思達克 02-05 09:02
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(4日)先升後反覆,恆指昨早市先大幅高開271點至20488點,其後稍作拉據後再進一步急升668點至20,885點方漸受規限,由於升勢偏促,故引來短炒之回吐沽壓,而大市亦曾一度急回至20,297點方漸見喘定,其後大市稍作後抽,惟步伐已明顯放緩,經過昨天之一輪急升,本月大市已初呈先低後高之形態,恆指暫是由3日之低位19,764點升至4日之高位20,885點,即月內之波幅已有達1,121點,首先,一個月之高低位是不會同時出現於兩個交易日之內,加上1,121點之波幅亦該不能滿足月內之所需,故在本月餘下之交易日,定必有更大之波幅點出現,恆指最後報收20,789點,較上日升572點,全日總成交金額爲1,618億元。 再看各組常用之平均移動線之表現,直到執筆一刻止計,各組平均移動線之排列由上而下爲10天線(約在20,050點左近),100天線(約在19,811點左近),50天線(約在19,743點左近),20天線(約在19,694點左近)及250天線(約在18,321點左近),單從技術上看,只要恆指能持續穩守於10天線之上,即可同時穩企於各組平均移動線之上,論形態,當有利於短期後市再伺機上試去年12月10日之高位21,070點及11月8日之高位21,355點,此乃小圖上之小雙頂,但有一點需留意,大市之交投似欠暢旺,擔心在動力不足之下,大市之升勢不但會漸受規限,且一旦零碎沽壓再現,整個大市又會再見反覆,如出現上述情況,當需先留意10天線之防守性,此防線一旦有失,即表示大市又再略見反覆。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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