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郭思治:大市昨曾一舉跌穿10天及20天線
阿思達克 03-14 08:58
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(13日)持續反覆,且恆指更於日中曾相繼跌穿10天線(約在23,571點左近)及20天線(約在23,340點左近),雖其後略見喘定及後抽,但市內氣氛已漸呈保守,恆指昨早市先輕微高開16點至23,616點,其後再進一步稍升至23,712點已漸受規限,由於買盤保守,加上零碎沽壓亦不斷涌現,故整個大市卒開始拾級而下,恆指於午後更一度急跌402點至23,198點方漸見喘定並略作技術性後抽,惟在買盤保守下,大市仍保持反覆偏淡之勢頭,恆指最後報收23,462點,較上日跌137點,全日總成交金額爲2,338億元。 目前大市首個技術性支持分別爲10天線(約在23,571點左近)及20天線(約在23,340點左近),因恆指一日仍能持續穩守或緊扣上述兩組平均移動線,則表示大市即使略見反覆,但只屬急升後之正常消化而已,惟如大市一旦跌穿或跌離上述兩組平均移動線,則該表示大市或已開始進入中期大幅急升後之正常調整之中,以恆指由今年1月13日低位18,671點開始之升浪,至3月7日高位24,669點止計,在短短八週內,累積升幅已達5,998點,論升幅確已不算小,且升勢亦頗爲偏促,故一旦買盤不繼,而伺高回吐之沽壓又略作主動,大市當會出現明顯調整,假如大市需回調升幅5,998點之31.8%,則後市會先跌穿10天線及20天線,然後再進一步跌穿23,000點之支持,繼而再下試22,762點,當然,上述只屬假設性,但大市既已累積不少升幅,故在市況持續反覆不明之下,任何投機性之短炒行動,實在不宜過急及過勇,同時亦需做好一切風險管理。 (筆者爲證監會持牌人)~
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