大行評級丨大摩:料小米YU7成重要催化劑 股價有望突破100港元
摩根士丹利發表報吿,上調小米集團(1810.HK)目標價至62港元,予“增持”評級,預期推出新車“YU7”可能成為今年重要催化劑,加上AIoT和智能手機業務亦成為增長雙引擎,預期2030年前,小米股價有望突破100港元。大摩料小米至2030年總收入或超1萬億元,淨利潤逾1000億元,如若實現,市值可達到2.5萬億元,與主要同行比亞迪、特斯拉和蘋果相當。認為SU7 Ultra是業務一個里程碑,產品結構、平均售價和利潤率有上行空間,將基準情境下,電動汽車業務內在價值預測從2040億元,上調至4970億元,將今明兩年銷量預測調高至37萬輛及75萬輛;今明兩年平均售價上調至25萬元及25.5萬元。相信將推出的SUV YU7可複製成功。在樂觀情境下,小米電動汽車在2026至27年估計迅速實現100萬輛年出貨量,在2028至29年料擴大至逾200萬輛,電動汽車估值將重估至3.5至4倍2026年市銷率,智能手機+AIoT+互聯網業務的2026年市盈率倍數將重估至25至30倍,市值或達到1.7萬億至2萬億元,對應股價為70-85港元,樂觀假設情境是75港元。在悲觀情境下,小米今年電動汽車銷量弱於預期,新車型可能將其年出貨量在2027至28年提升至100萬輛,但投資者對其在2030年前實現200萬輛年出貨量信心不足,電車業務估值維持在1至1.5倍2026年市銷率,如品牌形象沒有明顯改善,智能手機+AIoT+互聯網業務市盈率倍數將下調至10至15倍,市值或達6250億至9500億元,隱含股價為25至40元,悲觀假設情境是30港元。
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