On June 27, just over a month after the first debate of the US election, the situation suddenly changed. Trump was assassinated, Biden withdrew from the race, Harris took over, and so on. As Harris took over the banner of the Democratic Party, Trump's advantage was greatly weakened, and Harris's support rate increased significantly. This has reshaped the campaign landscape in the U.S. election. According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, Harris has a 52% chance of winning, slightly better than Trump's 45%. Compared with two weeks ago, Harris's winning rate is a significant change. At that time, Trump's winning probability was as high as 64% and Harris's was 29%.

At the same time, the latest polls show that voters trust Harris more than Republican presidential candidate Trump when it comes to handling the domestic economy. This is the first time on record that a Democratic presidential candidate has surpassed Trump.

On August 11, the results of a poll of 1,001 voters were released. This poll jointly conducted by the Financial Times and the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan showed that 42% of the voters surveyed were in favor of handling the economy. Trust Harris, 41% of respondents trust Trump.

This is the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has overtaken Trump since the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business kept records. In comparison, last month's poll showed that only 35% of voters surveyed said they approved of U.S. President Joe Biden's handling of the economy, far behind Trump's 41%.

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That's a very slim lead, though, even within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. But this marks a change of direction.

What is the "Harris Transaction"

Harris advocates reducing taxes for low- and middle-income groups and raising taxes for the rich, which will benefit the consumer sector; she hopes to promote U.S. exports, which will benefit large multinational companies; and support the development of clean energy, electric vehicles and photovoltaic stocks will benefit.

Which stocks are expected to benefit if Harris wins? uSMART has selected some Harris concept stocks based on the above sectors for reference:

Clean energy stocks: First Solar (FSLR.US), Enphase Energy (ENPH.US), Nextracker (NXT.US)

New energy vehicle stocks: Ford Motor (F.US), General Motors (GM.US), Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)

Consumer stocks: Amazon (AMZN.US), Walmart (WMT.US), Costco (COST.US)

Cryptocurrency concept stocks: MicroStrategy (MSTR.US), Coinbase (COIN.US), Marathon Digital (MARA.US)

Real estate stocks: Horton Housing (DHI.US), Lennar Construction (LEN.US), Pude Group (PHM.US)

Marijuana stocks: Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA.US), Dr. Reddy (RDY.US), Tilray Brands (TLRY.US)

Specifically:

Middle class support and real estate policy

Middle Class Lift Act: Harris proposes a $500 monthly tax rebate credit for individuals making less than $100,000 a year. This policy is intended to replace the tax cuts implemented by Trump in 2017 and further support the economic development of the middle class. The main beneficiaries of this policy are low- and middle-income families, especially in the consumer sector.

Stocks to benefit: As the purchasing power of the middle class increases, the consumer sector and small-cap consumer ETFs are expected to benefit. Consumer stocks may also benefit from this, such as Amazon (AMZN.US), Walmart (WMT.US), Costco (COST.US)

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Advocating for housing affordability relief: Harris attaches great importance to the affordability issue of American residents. She proposed the "Rent Relief Act" to provide tax credits for tenants with an annual income of less than $100,000, which may benefit the U.S. real estate industry.

Stocks that may benefit: Horton Homes (DHI.US), Lennar Construction (LEN.US), Prudential Group (PHM.US)

Trade policy

Criticizing Trump's trade policies: Harris has been critical of Trump's trade policies and stressed the importance of strengthening U.S. exports. She opposed Trump's tariff plans, saying they would increase consumer spending on things like gasoline and groceries, affecting middle-class families.

Stocks that could benefit: Large U.S. multinationals and large-cap ETFs could benefit if Harris is elected. These multinational companies usually operate on a global scale and focus on exports, so they are expected to gain economic benefits from strengthening export policies.

Clean energy

Supporting clean energy development: Harris has been supportive of the Biden administration’s climate policies, especially the $20 billion allocated to the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Fund through the Inflation Reduction Act. In addition, Harris emphasized increased regulation of oil companies and other polluters. She has filed lawsuits against multiple fossil fuel companies, sued a pipeline company over an oil spill and launched an investigation into whether Exxon Mobil misled the public about climate change.

Stocks that could benefit: Harris may take a more aggressive stance on clean energy than Biden, which means photovoltaic stocks such as First Solar (FSLR.US), Enphase Energy (ENPH.US), Nextracker (NXT.US) ) and new energy vehicle stocks such as Tesla (TSLA.US) and Rivian (RIVN.US) are expected to benefit from this.

Marijuana Policy

Open Marijuana Policy: Harris called for a change in the classification of marijuana, criticizing current policies as “ridiculous” and urging the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to reclassify marijuana.

Stocks that may benefit: This policy change may benefit U.S. cannabis stocks such as Tilray (RLRY.US), Canopy Growth (CGC.US), and SNDL Inc (SNDL.US), because they will be able to operate cannabis more legally and widely. product.

Cryptocurrency

Contact with the cryptocurrency industry: Although Harris has not had a clear stance on cryptocurrencies before, the latest news shows that her team is reaching out to the U.S. cryptocurrency industry in an attempt to ease tensions between the Democratic Party and the crypto industry. Through constructive dialogue with the crypto industry, Harris hopes to develop a regulatory framework that is conducive to the development of cryptocurrencies.

Stocks that may benefit: In this way, if Harris is elected, it will be beneficial to major cryptocurrency companies, such as Coinbase (COIN.US), Microstrategy (MSTR.US), etc., giving them a more favorable position in the future market.

What are the prospects for the “Trump deal”?

The current general election prospects are confusing. CNN reported on the 8th that Republican former US President Trump and Democratic Vice President Harris have agreed to participate in the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) on September 10, local time. ), this is a widely anticipated showdown.

Therefore, investors also need to pay close attention to the main thread of Trump's trading. Once Trump gains the upper hand in this debate, the market direction may immediately change.