惠譽:內地市場監管收緊或影響證券公司 惟A股長遠表現取決未來經濟發展
評級機構惠譽表示,中國證券監管機構加大力度遏制股市波動下行,或對本土證券公司造成影響,主要體現在手續費收入減少及自營交易業務不確定性上升。在當前市況波動加劇的情況下,衍生產品和結構性產品平倉也可能使證券公司面臨更高的交易對手方風險和操作風險,因為在這過程中的拋售可能給市場帶來連鎖反應。
惠譽認為,這一市場環境下,證券公司風險管理框架的強度及其執行風險管理政策的能力成為致其財務表現分化的主要因素。惠譽授評的幾家最大的證券公司擁有充裕資本及較完善的風險管理能力,能夠更好地應對市場波動,不對其信用狀況造成影響。
有媒體報道稱,中國證券監管機構最近幾周出台禁令,禁止某些主要機構在股市開盤和收盤半小時內淨賣出股票,並禁止一些量化對沖基金對股票多頭頭寸進行平倉。惠譽認為,這些措施或僅能起到暫時的緩解作用,股市的長期表現很大程度上仍取決於經濟表現以及更多經濟刺激政策的施行。
惠譽認為,股票、透明度較低且流動性可能較差的基金、以及理財產品的風險尤其高。上述投資共佔投資資產總額的34%。同時監管機構對交易策略的限制和窗口指導頻率加大,如暫時禁止淨賣出和賣空,也提高證券公司的操作風險。
惠譽表示,憑藉較完善的風險管理基礎設施,龍頭證券公司將能避免遭受巨大損失,因其會提前調整倉位以避免突破內部風險限額。這一點明顯體現在2015年中國股災等較近期發生的市場動盪期間。(ca/k)
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