《大行報告》大和降歐舒丹(00973.HK)評級至「持有」 升目標價至29元
大和發表報告,表示歐舒丹(00973.HK)股價本年初至今累升25%,而恆生指數同期累跌4%。歐舒丹是迄今為止該行所覆蓋中國消費股中,表現最好的股票。該行認為,這次反彈主要是關於私有化的憧憬,新消息是黑石(BX.US)考慮出價收購。歐舒丹董事會主席Reinold Geiger於2023年9月時曾擱置私有化建議,而當時股價與現水平相若。雖然大和不排除這次實現私有化的可能性,但認為短期內實現有吸引力的私有化作價機會少於五成,因此認為現階段獲利為審慎做法。
在Reinold Geiger之前提出的私有化建議,設定每股底價為26元,並駁斥每股35元的要約正在討論中的相關說法。大和相信放棄收購關鍵原因是有限的收購溢價。如果提供20%溢價,根據該行的觀察,這通常是要安撫香港的小股東,那麼要約價至少要每股33元,超過歐舒丹歷史最高交投價格,減少在歐洲或美國重新上市的優勢。大和認為,每股35元仍然可能是此次的最高實際報價(即上升空間26%),但提醒投資者,歐舒丹於2023年9月撤回私有化建議,緊接下來盤中下跌29%。從時間角度來看,該行相信Reinold Geiger在考慮交易時能夠耐心等待。
大和將歐舒丹評級由「跑贏大市」降至「持有」,反映上升空間有限不值博,目標價由25元升至29元,相當於預測2025財年市盈率19.5位,符合過去十年平均交投水平。
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