《大行報告》招商證券降中升(00881.HK)目標價至22元 主銷品牌拖累業績
招商證券發表報告指,中升(00881.HK)主銷品牌拖累業績,長期關注從經銷向服務轉型。豪華車銷售方面,奔馳/寶馬/奧迪/雷克薩斯2023年在華銷量分別為76.5萬/82.5萬/72.9萬/18.1萬輛,按年基本持
平/+4.2%/+13.5%/-1.4%,寶馬/奧迪新能源佔比分別為12.1%/4.3%。整體上維持增長,但仍跑輸乘用車行業10.6%增速。
報告指,中升的長期投資價值在於從經銷向服務轉型,降低對新車銷售業務依賴,提升高黏性高利潤售後服務收入佔比,增強業績穩定性;公司是少有的在行業變革期具備整合內部及龐大外部售後市場資源的經銷商;二手車發展空間廣闊,車源及售後優勢顯著。
該行下調中升2023至2025年淨利潤預測27.9%/22.5%/24.4%,反映新車業務受市場競爭影響。今年公司業績有望恢復。2023至2025年淨利潤預測年均複合增長率達18.8%,考慮轉型期存在不確定性,目標價由28元下調至22元,維持「增持」評級。
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