You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
華爾街最悲觀預測出現!小摩:標普500明年將跌8%至4200點

在今年美股的強勢表現“打臉”眾多在去年末看空的分析師後, 今年華爾街上大多數分析師轉投看升陣營 。

而在華爾街策略師們紛紛高呼美國股市在未來一年創歷史新高之際,摩根大通卻獨樹一幟發佈了對美國股市未來一年的悲觀展望,這也是迄今為止最悲觀的預測。

該行預計標準普爾500指數到2024年將收於4200點,較週三基準指數下跌約8%。並指出預期盈利增長疲弱、估值過高以及地緣政治風險較高。

摩根大通的預期明顯低於華爾街其他多數策略師。就連“華爾街最悲觀的分析師”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的邁克•威爾遜(Mike Wilson)也認為,標準普爾500指數將在2024年底觸及4500點,威爾遜過去幾年一直是著名的看空者。

宏觀風險加劇

摩根大通的杜布拉夫科•拉科斯-布哈斯(Dubravko Lakos-Bujas)及其團隊週三在一份展望報吿中表示,由於美聯儲沒有迅速放鬆貨幣政策,預計明年股市將面臨更具挑戰性的宏觀背景。

根據LSEG的數據,摩根大通預計2024年標普500指數盈利增長率為2%至3% ,這一增長率遠低於分析師普遍預期的11.4%。

該公司在報吿中表示,市場對每股收益的普遍預期與Goldilocks環境的假設一致,即通脹將降温,而不會對需求和定價能力造成重大沖擊。

策略師寫道:“與這種強勁的前景相反,我們預計收入環比增長較低,利潤率不會擴張,股東派息也較低。”

摩根大通表示,目前的估值“很高”,“特別是考慮到商業週期老化、限制性貨幣政策和地緣政治風險”。

這些風險包括兩場重大戰爭和包括美國在內的40個國家舉行全國大選,策略師預計這將導致2024年股市波動性普遍高於2023年。

此外,策略師表示,經濟衰退是明年的現實風險,儘管投資者尚在不同地區、風格和行業中一致反映這種不確定性。

消費者和信貸成本前景不斷惡化

儘管許多華爾街人士認為盈利狀況可能已經好轉,但摩根大通站在了經濟學家的一邊,這些經濟學家強調,信貸成本上升最終將導致美國經濟在2024年放緩。美聯儲(Fed)週三發佈的一份新報吿顯示,經濟放緩可能已經開始。

摩根大通還指出,管理團隊最近在財報電話會議上的評論顯示,消費者和信貸成本的前景都在惡化。根據摩根大通的研究,自金融危機以來,人們對於資本成本的情緒從未如此低落過。

摩根大通的團隊寫道: “在缺乏重大貨幣或財政政策支持的情況下,我們認為目前的共識增長假設更多的是希望,而非現實”。

消費者和信貸的情緒都在萎縮

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account