郭明錤:MacBook供應鏈出貨量將減少最多35% 籲留意相關AI股票
天風國際分析師郭明錤發文稱,2023年第四季蘋果(AAPL.US)旗下MacBook電腦出貨量將按年減少25%至30%,至1,700萬台,建議投資者需警戒同時是MacBook關鍵供應商的AI股票。
郭明錤稱,新款15吋MacBook Air自返校日(Back to school)後,需求顯著衰退,今年出貨預估已下修約20%或更多。蘋果第四季3沒有新產品,MacBook出貨量將顯著低於往年,蘋果第四季歷來非常重要,因為消費者購買設備是假期購物的一部分,但由於沒有新產品,需要清理庫存與重新擬定2024年新產品與行銷策略。
他續稱,AI股票正值需要良好的收入與利潤,以提振交易氣氛,若AI股票同時又是關鍵MacBook關鍵供應商,可能要注意近期AI伺服器收入能否抵銷MacBook顯著衰退。
由於,MacBook目前的挑戰,包括在家工作需求結束、Apple Silicon與mini-LED對消費者吸引力可能已不再。Apple希望M3處理器可以推升2024年MacBook出貨量,但仍需觀察可策略能否奏效。MacBook的組裝與關鍵零組件的單價均顯著高於一般Notebook約3倍以上,故對MacBook關鍵供應商的收入與利潤影響不小。
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