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瑞銀:內地經濟增長動力或已觸底反彈 料刺激政策未來繼續加碼
阿思達克 09-19 15:53
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,中國8月經濟增長有所改善,強於市場預期;經濟增長動能或已觸底反彈,預計未來政策支持繼續加碼,房地產活動可能接近底部。中國GDP按季增速或在三季度見底、四季度反彈;並維持對2023年實際GDP增長4.8%的預測。 她續稱,房地產下行週期如何演進,以及政策放鬆的幅度和節奏,仍是未來經濟增長的最大不確定性。 汪濤預計,未來政策支持有望繼續加碼,其中大部分已經在計劃中,同時認為有必要進一步放鬆貨幣和信貸政策以配合房地產和財政政策放鬆,包括進一步下調政策利率10至15個基點,以及支持信貸增速在2023年底溫和反彈至9.6%。本周降準可能是2023年內央行最後一次降準,未來幾個月央行或使用其他政策工具提供流動性支援和擴張資產負債表。 此外,瑞銀中國股票策略研究主管王宗豪認為,市場可能已經觸底。在當前中國股市疲軟的情況下,有理由更加樂觀,其中表現最好的行業包括互聯網和各種消費子行業,如餐飲、休閒和啤酒。該行搭建的投資組合以這些行業為主,不過亦納入具有防禦性的高速公路。最不看好的行業仍是航空、銀行、材料和汽車。
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