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《大行報告》中金:內地上週新房銷售仍弱 部份有政策出臺的城市表現較好
中金髮表內房行業報告表示,上週(9月4日至9月10日)內地54城新房和15城二手房銷售面積按周下降29%和3%,較8月周均下降20%和2%,按年下降30%和持平略增2%。該行指,上週新房銷售按周降約三成,部分有政策出臺的龍頭城市表現較好。上週54個樣本城市新房銷售面積按周降約三成,按周表現一定程度上受月末至月初的備案節奏變化影響;同期15個樣本城市二手房銷售面積同按周均基本持平。 該行指,雖然整體上新房表現仍弱,但上週各地需求支持政策仍在持續落地,例如杭州、合肥等多個二線城市跟進落實「認房不認貸」政策,南京、瀋陽、大連放鬆全域限購,大連、青島下調首付比例至下限;同時,近期出臺政策且有新房銷售數據跟蹤的8個超高/強高能級城市中,深圳、北京、成都、青島、南京5城按周均有所增長,表現明顯好於整體平均水平,政策效果初步有所顯現,考慮到備案數據滯後、房屋置換時間等因素,預計在中期維度上這一改善趨勢仍將有所延續,並伴隨着各地政策進一步落地而加強和拓展,建議持續關注政策和前端指標實時變化。 中金繼續看好A股及港股的內房股表現,料在香港上市的內房股在更低估值下相較A股更具彈性。目前絕大多數高能級以上城市已在執行「認房不認貸」,並對換房需求的釋放形成一定提振;疊加潛在對首付比例下限的調整,該行預計高能級以上城市樓市景氣度有望築底回升、基本面復甦存在正向預期差。該行繼續看好內房股未來3至6個月維度的表現,考慮到內房股7月以來調整更深、當前估值更具性價比,該行認爲其後續股價彈性或更足,港股首推龍湖(00960.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、建發(01908.HK)、越秀(00123.HK)。(wl/s) ~
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