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惠譽料今年內地線上零售額或增長高單位數至低雙位數
評級機構惠譽表示,今年內地線上(電商)零售額或將呈高個位數至低雙位數增長,略快於線下零售額增速,因為消費者購物行為向網絡購物傾斜的結構性轉變,以及各電商之間激烈的價格競爭。前述趨勢假設零售總額錄得高個位數增長率。 惠譽表示,今年即使在消費者提高了非必需消費品支出的情況下,如今的消費者更青睞平價商品,而非高價或奢侈品。這或是由於,正如中國人民銀行2023年第二季度的問卷調查結果所示,消費者情緒及就業收入前景皆持續疲弱。消費總體上呈消費降級態勢,例如在內地三大電商平台中的兩大平台,即阿里巴巴(09988.HK)以及京東(09618.HK)的線上市集,個護、電器器械、家居製造等許多可選消費品類別的中低端品牌較高端品牌表現更好。 惠譽認為,電商的大力度補貼,疊加前述消費降級導致銷售組合結構變動,顯著推動了前述電商平台上多數品類均價下跌。例如今上半年化妝品奢飾品牌的線上零售額總體上按年大幅下滑,而化妝品大眾品牌的線上零售額按年降幅則較小,或甚至有所上升,受此影響,整個化妝品品類的零售均價下滑。
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