機構：科網股業績表現強勁，看好港股中概反彈機會
來源：風研海外
上週恆指下跌，人民幣週五反彈。中國大型科技股1Q23業績表現繼續向好。美團1Q23收入+27%，Non-IFRS淨利潤提升至55億元。拼多多1Q23收入同比+58%，超彭博一致預期，Non-GAAP淨利潤同比+27%，亦遠超彭博一致預期。快手1Q23收入+20%，Non-IFRS淨利潤轉正，均超彭博一致預期。
天風證券認爲，由於此前市場整體風險偏好受到壓制，股價未充分反映大型科技股紮實的基本面表現。當前估值水平隱含風險收益比較高，截止2023/5/26，恆生科技指數23/24年彭博預測EPS分別+18%/+44%，預測PE僅爲25/18倍，騰訊23/24年彭博預測PE僅爲19/16倍，阿里巴巴FY24/25年彭博預測PE僅爲10/9倍。展望後續，預計企業盈利仍處於上行週期，估值水平亦存在較明顯修復空間。
展望後續，重點關注beta邊際潛在改善因素。1）中國商務部長王文濤會晤美國商務部長和貿易代表，雙方一致同意加強溝通。2）國內潛在進一步促增長政策組合。此外，關注6月14日美聯儲將議息會議。4月美國PCE指標超市場預期，截止5/27，CME數據顯示市場預期6月進一步加息25基點概率約64%，加息預期或已反映較充分。
投資建議：
$騰訊控股(00700.HK)$：外部因素/資金面短期波動並不影響公司優質基本面，估值處於歷史相對低位。截至5月19日，彭博一致預期騰訊23年預測PE約爲20倍，24年預測PE約17倍。公司核心業務格局穩固，商業化提速，遊戲/廣告/金融兼具復甦beta與新產品alpha，全年收入增速與利潤率回升共振，潛在盈利彈性可觀，中長期增長可期。
$美團-W(03690.HK)$：估值歷史相對底部，外賣業務壁壘穩固，到店業務顯著受益於線下復甦，外部競爭格局逐步清晰，核心競爭力依然穩固：近期開展的補貼活動有助於拉齊價格差距、鞏固用戶心智、穩住市佔。截至5月19日，美團市值對應2023年核心商業經營利潤爲21x，股價處在歷史相對低位，建議積極關注。
$泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)$：國內線下門店修復，抖音新渠道放量，海外門店拓展加速。中期核心IP運營能力和IP變現方式拓寬（遊戲、樂園）。截至5月19日，彭博一致預期23年預測PE約23倍。
$快手-W(01024.HK)$：公司今年各項業務展現韌性，流量穩健增長，市場份額穩定，恢復速度或超此前預期。隨宏觀經濟形勢恢復，公司核心業務廣告收入恢復或好於預期；截至5月19日，彭博一致預期23年1.8X PS。
風險提示：美國和歐洲市場面臨持續加息和高通脹率；國內疫情反覆風險；國內經濟增長放緩；政策刺激效果不足
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