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大摩:美股將持續反彈
uSMART盈立智投 11-14 20:32

摩根士丹利首席美國股票策略師威爾遜週一在一份報告中表示,美股到2023年底將與目前的水平相差無幾,預計屆時標普500指數爲3900點,而這中間將充滿波動。他認爲,隨着盈利預期下降,美股會先在上半年下跌,然後在下半年反彈。此外,他認爲上週良好的通脹數據推動的股市反彈將持續數週。

威爾遜稱,市場對2023年美股的收益預期仍然過高。他的基本假設是,美國公司的利潤將在2023年下降11%,而到了2024年會因爲積極的經營槓桿回報出現強勁反彈。

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他的言論是對美股本財報季發出的另一個警告。在通脹高企、美元走強和盈利預警的影響下,第三季度是2020年一季度以來最疲軟的財報季。

威爾遜預計標普500指數將在2023年第一季度跌至3000-3300點,較當前水平低17%。他建議投資者從行業和風格的角度持有防禦性板塊的頭寸,一直到盈利預測能夠反映蕭條的經濟。策略師們還看好醫療保健、公用事業和能源等板塊。

摩根大通策略師Mislav Matejka對美股更爲樂觀,他認爲債券收益率見頂、通脹降溫、倉位處於低水平以及盈利收縮可能好於預期等因素將繼續爲美股提供支撐。

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