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美元成今年唯一避風港
uSMART盈立智投 09-16 20:35

當下,美元升值是唯一可能的對衝手段,以應對全球金融危機以來股市遭受的最大損失。

花旗集團的數據顯示,鑑於今年以來全球股市已累計損失23萬億美元,美元與風險資產的反向關係使美元成爲至少在2022年剩餘時間裏唯一的避風港。

包括Jamie Fahy和Adam Pickett在內的花旗策略師週四表示:“唯一的避風港就是美元。”他們表示,只有出現“深度衰退”,美國通脹纔會大幅下降,這意味着在美聯儲政策轉向之前,企業利潤和股市將出現長期下跌。

追蹤美元兌全球10種貨幣的彭博美元現貨指數今年以來已飆升逾11%,創下該指數自2004年開始編制以來的最佳年度表現。

在週二公佈的美國8月通脹數據超出預期之後,交易員再次加大了對美聯儲激進加息的押注。美元走強之下,非美貨幣多數走弱。日元兌美元匯率繼續徘徊在24年來低點,距離備受關注的1美元兌145日元這一重要關口僅一步之遙;加拿大元兌美元的匯率則跌至近兩年來最低水平;澳元兌美元也處於多年來新低的邊緣。

分析人士表示,美元的強勢目前還不太可能有放緩的跡象。Brown Brothers Harriman匯市策略主管Win Thin表示:“市場對美聯儲收緊貨幣政策的重新定價,可能令美元在短期內保持全線買盤。”“正如我們在近期美元連續回調時所說的那樣,從根本上來說,一切都沒有真正改變,全球背景繼續有利於美元。”

加拿大帝國商業銀行也認爲,現在就押注美元見頂還爲時過早。該行外匯策略主管Bipan Rai表示:“實際政策利率仍處於深度負值,金融環境過於寬鬆。”“市場已經消化了其中的部分因素,但對於利率終點在哪裏還存在許多不確定,這應該會讓美元得到良好的支撐。”

花旗策略師認爲:“美元牛市的結束要麼需要美聯儲政策轉向,要麼需要全球增長預期觸底。”“這些有可能在2023年發生,但不會在短期內發生。”

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