小摩:全球經濟軟着陸可能性更大 利好週期性資產
由於投資者預計通脹可能已經見頂,近幾日市場恢復了積極情緒。
摩根大通策略師團隊週一表示,最近的數據表明通脹和工資壓力開始緩和、經濟增長正在反彈並且消費者信心保持穩定,全球經濟不會出現衰退,更有可能出現軟着陸,這將繼續爲風險資產帶來利好。他們認爲,市場可以受益於中國的財政刺激、歐洲的能源支持計劃以及處於低谷的投資者情緒。
這些策略師指出:“經濟數據和投資者頭寸是影響風險資產表現更重要的因素,而不是央行的言論。我們保持偏好風險的立場。”

由於投資者預計通脹可能已經見頂,近幾日市場恢復了積極情緒,至少美股是這樣。週一,MSCI全球指數實現了5月以來爲期四天的最大漲幅,投資者爲將於週二公佈的美國CPI數據做好了準備。
摩根大通認爲,通脹逐步緩和將對週期性股票和小盤股有利,建議逢低買入能源股,並積極增持大宗商品。
其策略師團隊表示:“我們堅持認爲,隨着扭曲現象消退以及美聯儲對加息75個基點的過度渲染,通脹將會自然下降。我們可能會看到美聯儲的政策出現轉向,這對週期性資產是有利的。”
他們還看好美元,預計美國和歐洲債券收益率曲線將趨平。
Oreana Financial Services首席投資官Isaac Poole也表示,現有數據表明,全球經濟正在走向軟着陸。他稱:“在這種情況下,我們認爲明年美股的收益可能會相對較好。盈利增長可能會出乎意料,因爲已經存在太多悲觀情緒。”
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