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Pimco:美股或在2023年初觸底
uSMART盈立智投 09-05 21:42

太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)多資產策略投資組合經理Erin Browne表示,從現在到2023年上半年,隨着美聯儲加息和消費者支出疲軟擠壓企業利潤,股市將面臨艱難時期,可能會在“明年上半年的某個時候”觸底。她指出,通脹和經濟衰退將削減第三和第四季度的消費者需求。

Browne表示,當前的盈利預測“定價錯誤”,因爲它們沒有完全考慮到美聯儲緊縮政策對經濟等方面造成的影響,這與各公司第二季度財報電話會議中提到的通脹和供應鏈問題數量下降的情況形成鮮明對比。

她認爲,標普500指數可能跌至3500至3750點之間,而更嚴重的經濟衰退可能導致該指數跌至3000點。

根據Pimco的數據,從歷史上看,當美國進入衰退時,企業盈利會下降15%至20%。目前該公司的模型顯示,第四季度美國企業盈利將轉爲同比負增長。

即使美聯儲和其他央行不得不收緊貨幣政策,導致經濟處於需求疲軟的環境,更高的物價仍將侵蝕美國人的支出。

與摩根士丹利策略師邁克爾·威爾遜週三的評論相呼應,Browne表示,目前的企業盈利指引落後於曲線。

在股市未來處境艱難的情況下,Browne傾向於做多醫療保健等更高質量的行業,稱其爲經濟衰退環境中的“亮點”。Pimco預計,在需求疲軟的情況下,工業、採礦、航運和運輸等早期週期性股票將表現不佳。

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