中金今年十大預測:估港股「均值迴歸」料滬深港通北向資金淨流入逾三千億人幣等
中金髮表2022年十大預測報告,第一預測是A股有驚無險、第二是港股「均值迴歸」、第三是成長跑贏價值、第四是電動車產業鏈及新能源行業高景氣將擴散到相關領域、第五是泛消費領域可能是2022年亮點之一、第六是商品市場趨弱、第七是內地公募基金新增份額超過3萬億份、第八是滬深港通北向資金淨流入超過3,000億人民幣、第九是內地債務問題在2022年仍值得重視、及第十預測是美股2022年漲幅將明顯收窄。
就第一個預測是A股有驚無險,中金指雖然2022年盈利增長受到上遊行業拖累整體可能並不出色,中國政策逐步趨鬆、整體估值不高、流動性有支持,疫情影響逐步淡出,2022年A股可能機會大於風險。A股權益類公募基金年度收益中位數可能會明顯高於2021年。
第二個預測是港股「均值迴歸」,中金錶示內外部多方面因素導致港股市場近年連續大幅跑輸A股。2022年海外科技監管趨勢仍值得關注,但中國科技監管政策出臺高峯漸過,港股新老經濟估值低、賣空交易佔比較高且持續時間較長、倉位偏低,香港經濟發展與國際金融中心地位強化方向未變,港股可能在2022年迎來階段性明顯修復。
第三個預測是成長跑贏價值,全年來看,利率不高、整體增長偏淡的環境中,有可持續增長的成長風格可能是獲取超額收益的重。第四個預測是電動車產業鏈及新能源行業高景氣將擴散到相關領域。
第五個預測是泛消費領域可能是2022年亮點之一,疫情可能的好轉可能會帶來線下活動的明顯恢復。第六個預測是商品市場趨弱。第七個預測是近年公募及私募基金管理規模長足增長,估計內地2022年公募基金新增份額可能超過3萬億份,且互聯互通南下投資港股的潛力依然較大。
第八個預測是滬深港通北向資金淨流入超過3,000億人民幣,指2021年滬深港通北上/南下資金各淨流入分別達約4,322億/3,791億人民幣,其中淨流入A股重要的方向就是製造業。不少投資者考慮到2022海外流動性可能收緊,擔心中國面臨資金流出的壓力。該行判斷「政策內鬆外緊、增長內上外下」、中國仍是全球成長機遇最好的市場之一,滬深港通北上資金淨流入可能仍會達到或超過3,000億元人民幣。
第九個預測是債務問題在2022年仍值得重視。地產整體逐步下行壓力顯現、地方換屆等因素,可能仍使得信用債包括地方政府相關債務成爲階段性關注焦點。第十個預測是美股今年漲幅將明顯收窄。美國在疫情後的大幅政策刺激在股市反應得較爲充分,但當前通脹壓力已經較大、貨幣政策已經開始收緊。2022年美國將面臨中期選舉,政策刺激持續性存疑。(wl/u)
~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.