星展:料恆指明年目標28500點,建議增持物管股及內房股
星展銀行(香港)經濟研究部香港及中國內地股票策略師林子津表示,港股基本面穩健且現時估值便宜,而監管、內房債等不利因素均已在市場價格上反映,憧憬內地政府將出手穩定房地產行業信心及為房企提供流動性,從而刺激整體市場顯著反彈,預料恆生指數明年目標為28500點,PE為11.9。
林子津指出,恆指今年表現是全球主要股票指數中最差,主要受內房風險、供應鏈失衡、加息預期以及監管趨嚴四大因素拖累。在內房風險方面,他認為,中國銀行系統有能力應對內房貸款、信託和抵押等風險,儘管未來或再有個別房企出現債務違約等問題,也不會出現系統性風險。而相關負面因素早在今年7月時已在股價上反映,預料中央可能在未來數個月內出台刺激措施,以明確表態支持房地產市場穩步發展及為房企提供流動性,建議投資者可增持內地物管股以及財政穩健、有購地能力的內房股。
在監管層面方面,林子津認為,內地監管概念清晰明確,如限制未成年人玩遊戲時間、保護個人信息、禁止平台“二選一”等均屬意料之內,但7月時禁止校外培訓機構盈利的舉措最令投資者擔心。他留意到近期內地出台新政後對相關股價的影響不大,而滴滴出行宣佈退市後,中證監迴應之快反映這純屬單一事件,預期中概股未來不會大規模退市,但中國企業到美國上市的吸引力明顯大減,料有意到境外募資的公司會轉赴香港上市。
林子津強調,遊戲審批、信息保護等對新經濟股而言並非新鮮事,認為阿里巴巴、騰訊等新經濟股股價已見底。
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