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中信建投:降準大概率在本週即可落地,全面降準50bp可能最大
格隆匯12月6日丨中信建投指出,降準大概率在本週即可落地。2017年金融委成立以來,決策層對於預期管理和市場溝通有所重視,一般都會通過提前預告的方式進行降準準備,這次大概率也不會意外。全面降準50bp可能最大。首先,從對衝流動性需求上考慮,12月MLF到期量高達9500億元,如降準50BP大概釋放一萬億左右資金,對衝後預計增加超儲5000億元左右。其次,從總理表態的原文“適時降準,加大對實體經濟特別是中小微企業的支持力度”觀察,雖然着重強調了中小微企業,但也提到實體經濟本身面臨的困難,因此,我們綜合判斷全面降準50bp可能最大。大概率本週即可見到央行降準公告。按照以往的經歷,從降準溝通到正式公告降準的間隔約爲5.5天,本次也大概率維持這一節奏,特別是考慮到要置換一部分MLF到期。
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