中信證券:預計2022年出口同比增速或位於4.4%-5.4%區間
格隆匯10月15日丨中信證券研報指出,當前各經濟體在全球產業鏈的位置已形成動態平衡,從“原材料供給—工業品生產—終端消費”鏈條看,我國與歐美髮達經濟體處於上下遊關係,與東盟既有上下遊關係,又有平行替代關係。展望明年出口形勢,預計2022年出口同比增速或位於4.4%-5.4%區間,且走勢呈現兩階段:1)拉閘限電的短期擾動後,直到明年上半年出口仍有一定支撐;2)隨着全球貨幣政策收緊影響逐步凸顯以及全球疫情常態化,明年後半年出口增速或有所回落。
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